{"id":416,"date":"2015-09-03T13:41:38","date_gmt":"2015-09-03T17:41:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www2.law.temple.edu\/voices\/?p=416"},"modified":"2016-07-28T11:38:41","modified_gmt":"2016-07-28T15:38:41","slug":"what-we-know-about-the-future-of-work","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www2.law.temple.edu\/voices\/what-we-know-about-the-future-of-work\/","title":{"rendered":"What We Know About the Future of Work"},"content":{"rendered":"

Everyone is talking about the Future of Work, capitalization apparently mandatory.\u00a0Pacific Standard<\/a> has a series running on the Future of Work.\u00a0Forbes<\/a> and Fast Company<\/a> have new dedicated sections on the Future of Work. Various big foundations\u00a0are putting big money into researching the Future of Work. Some unions are doing that too.<\/p>\n

So, what is the Future of Work?\u00a0Here are seven\u00a0semi-informed thoughts on future labor markets, income distribution, and social movements.<\/p>\n

1. Nobody\u00a0really has\u00a0much of a clue which sectors will be remade.<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Consider this: the VC firms that spot and fund those startups thought\u00a0to be shaping the Future of Work by disrupting all our ordinary folkways? They expect almost all their\u00a0startups to fail. Nobody knows where the next Uber is going to come from.\u00a0Not to get all Hayekian here, but the market has its own logic.<\/p>\n

But\u2026 2. We probably should not be panicking about technological unemployment or a robot revolution<\/strong>.<\/h3>\n

See here David Autor\u2019s great new paper\u00a0\u201cWhy Are There Still so Many Jobs?\u201d<\/a> One is that it turns out to be awfully hard to automate some \u201cmenial\u201d jobs\u2013food preparation, hotel cleaning, landscaping\u2013because they require human judgment that machines just aren\u2019t close to having yet. Remember Google\u2019s neural network electric sheep dreams?<\/a> Same principle.<\/p>\n

A second is the dynamic effects of automation on labor markets. Increased automation can spur greater demand for skilled workers, which in turn creates demand for different sorts of unskilled workers. More systems analysts with higher salaries means more restaurants, hotels, child care centers, and the like.<\/p>\n

A third\u00a0is that when major disruptions do occur, it is just anyone\u2019s guess what will happen afterwards. As I\u2019ve argued elsewhere<\/a>, and as\u00a0Ben Evans points out far more eloquently<\/a>,\u00a0driverless cars may eliminate jobs for drivers but also enable totally different uses of urban space. Maybe retail and restaurants move in, or maybe even factories do. Evans paraphrases Carl Sagan: \u201cit was easy to predict mass car-ownership but hard to predict Wal-Mart.\u201d<\/p>\n

3. But\u2013and again, summarized nicely by Autor\u2013the distribution of jobs will probably be bimodal.<\/strong><\/h3>\n

We\u2019ll have a\u00a0bunch of highly-skilled professionals and analysts at the top and a bunch of less skilled workers at the bottom. This is actually the distribution we\u2019ve had in the U.S. for a while. The decline of industry hollowed out the middle, but the low-wage service sector grew a lot. Insofar as the U.S. maintains its global leadership in high tech, health care, finance, and other professional services, we\u2019ll need a lot of highly skilled professionals to analyze things and a lot of service workers to take care of those professionals.<\/p>\n

4. That means the wage distribution\u00a0will probably remain bimodal for a while, but doesn\u2019t have to forever.\u00a0<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The key\u00a0is whether workers on the left side of the distribution have much bargaining power. Lots of industrial jobs paid miserably until they were unionized; policies of embedded liberalism then helped protect those jobs by limiting product market competition. Now, I don\u2019t think we\u2019re going to see labor law reform anytime soon, but the distribution of income would surely look quite different if\u00a0workers could unionize more easily, or if they were placed into unions by default.<\/p>\n

A new burst of unionization would also have all manner of second-order effects that would be hard to predict. Would a union of Uber drivers soon decide they\u2019d be better off just setting up a\u00a0competing referral service? Would that hasten or prevent the widespread adoption of driverless cars? Would it lead toward a tax code or capital market regulations that encourage\u00a0allocation of capital to\u00a0cooperatives?<\/p>\n

As always with labor law reform, when and whether this changes will be a political question, and will probably involve lots of social conflict.<\/p>\n

5. Another\u00a0truism, but largely absent from debate: broader trends in globalization are still enormously important. <\/strong><\/h3>\n

A Europe with several million new migrants looks quite different from Europe a few years ago. Global labor markets look very different if border controls are relaxed, or if the migration crisis continues. Global product markets look very different if the Trans-Pacific Partnership goes through. What happens in the various European crises will help determine what happens in TTIP, which will shape the U.S. regulatory structure.<\/p>\n

6.\u00a0We haven\u2019t yet begun to appreciate how new technology can change secondary associations, social movements, and politics.<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The following is from my abstract for the upcoming \u201cComing Out Party\u201d\u00a0for Platform Cooperativism:<\/a><\/p>\n

Apps and algorithms that exploit network effects have enabled the rise of the so-called \u201csharing economy.\u201d But they can also enable the rise of new social movements to check corporate power and undergird robust platform cooperativism. The reason is that such apps and algorithms could make organizing far, far easier. Traditional organizing is time-consuming and expensive, and involves five phases. Organizers must contact workers, consumers, or citizens (the \u201ctargeting\u201d phase); figure out their desires (the \u201cassessing\u201d phase); show them that others share those desires (the \u201cassuring\u201d phase); move them into action (the \u201cmotivating\u201d phase); and consolidate those individuals\u2019 collective power into a lasting organization (the \u201cinstitutionalizing\u201d phase).\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Citizens linked together by the right platform running the right set of algorithms could pass through these phases at dramatically lower cost. Such a platform might gather data on consumer purchases and web browsing, not to enable sales, but to determine which consumers have strong preferences for ethical consumption, to put them in contact with one another, and to help them organize boycotts. Such a platform might link together all restaurant workers, or all health care workers, or all security guards within a particular city\u2014or nationally, or globally\u2014both providing them job-related information and enabling workers to organize walkouts or consumer boycotts.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Think of this as Organizing 3.0\u2014a platform that enables fast and effective concerted action through smart use of network effects, that moves online networks into the streets, and that is radically democratic, designed to enable thousands of new experimental forms of user-driven mobilization.<\/em><\/p>\n

Artisanal production led to craft unions, industrial production led to industrial unions, and new production strategies will eventually lead to new\u00a0sorts of \u201cunions.\u201d They will probably\u00a0be\u00a0mediated through technology, exploiting network effects to build collective power. Hopefully they can play the basic political-economic role of past unions: enhancing workers\u2019 bargaining power, democratizing work relationships, and serving as a political counterweight to corporate power.<\/p>\n

But I think they\u2019ll be very different from what we\u2019ve seen in the past.\u00a0They might be far more anarchic than current unions, they might be small but tightly organized, they might be very large but based on weak ties among worker.\u00a0They might be truly global organizations\u2013no reason that isn\u2019t possible today given that cross-border communication is essentially free.<\/p>\n

So, to summarize:<\/p>\n

7. The Future of Work is\u00a0a\u00a0question of politics as much as economics.<\/strong><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

This article originally appeared on the Internet of Work<\/a> blog.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Everyone is talking about the Future of Work, capitalization apparently mandatory.\u00a0Pacific Standard has a series running on the Future of Work.\u00a0Forbes and Fast Company have new dedicated sections on the Future of Work. Various big foundations\u00a0are putting big money into researching the Future of Work. Some unions are doing that too. So, what is the Future of Work?\u00a0Here are seven\u00a0semi-informed thoughts on future labor markets, income distribution, and social movements. 1. Nobody\u00a0really has\u00a0much of a clue which sectors will be remade. Consider this: the VC firms that spot and fund those startups thought\u00a0to be shaping the Future of Work by disrupting all our ordinary folkways? They expect almost all their\u00a0startups to fail. Nobody knows where the next Uber is going to come from.\u00a0Not to get all Hayekian here, but the market has its own logic. But\u2026 2. We probably should not be panicking about technological unemployment or a robot revolution. See here David Autor\u2019s great new paper\u00a0\u201cWhy Are There Still so Many Jobs?\u201d One is that it turns out to be awfully hard to automate …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":418,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[73,72],"audience":[],"coauthors":[26],"class_list":["post-416","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-faculty-commentary","tag-future-of-work","tag-labor-law"],"yoast_head":"\r\nWhat We Know About the Future of Work - Voices at Temple<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"So, what is the Future of Work? 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