{"id":2614,"date":"2022-09-06T11:36:47","date_gmt":"2022-09-06T15:36:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www2.law.temple.edu\/lppp\/?p=2614"},"modified":"2022-09-06T11:36:50","modified_gmt":"2022-09-06T15:36:50","slug":"chronicling-days-one-hundred-and-eighty-nine-through-one-hundred-and-ninety-five-of-the-information-war%ef%bf%bc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www2.law.temple.edu\/lppp\/chronicling-days-one-hundred-and-eighty-nine-through-one-hundred-and-ninety-five-of-the-information-war%ef%bf%bc\/","title":{"rendered":"Chronicling Days One Hundred and Eighty-Nine through One Hundred and Ninety-Five of the Information War\ufffc"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Alexander Rojavin \u201920, Law and Public Policy Scholar<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alexander Rojavin is a multilingual intelligence, media, and policy analyst specializing in information warfare. He is currently working on a book on modern Russian cinema as a key battlefield in the Kremlin\u2019s information war. He is also co-chair of the Symposium on Disinformation Studies. In his spare time, he moonlights as a published literary translator (Routledge, Slavica Publishers, forthcoming Academic Studies Press).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What follows is a chronicle of key events, trends, and anomalies from day 189 through day 195 of the Russian-Ukrainian war for democracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This report summarizes the military situation across Ukraine, Ukraine\u2019s politics and efforts in the information war, Russia\u2019s politics and efforts in the information war, and developments elsewhere in Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Does it Mean When \u201cThis Doesn\u2019t Matter?\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The last week has again seen increased chatter about pseudo-referenda. Russia might hold a referendum in Kherson, Russia might hold a referendum in the east, yada-yada, referenda are everywhere. My response to talk of any Russian \u201creferendum\u201d on Ukrainian territory has always been singular.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It. Doesn\u2019t. Matter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What does this flippancy mean? How could it not matter if Russia stages and\/or publishes the made-up results of an artificial referendum in order to put up a veneer of legitimacy for its war effort? Wouldn\u2019t such a referendum be an important inflection point in the war? Doesn\u2019t such a brazen violation of national and international law and international norms matter?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yes, it matters in the sense that it would be outrageous (and entirely foreseeable<\/em>\u2014outrage and predictability are not mutually exclusive; some things can and should be both unsurprising and outrageous), it would be yet another example of the Kremlin\u2019s cynical, scofflaw nature and inability to be a part of the civilized world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But what I mean when I say that it doesn\u2019t matter is this: it doesn\u2019t significantly change the overall calculus in Russia\u2019s favor<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Would it be outrageous? Yes. Would it be predictable? Yes. Would talking heads and pundits race to discuss its significance? Absolutely. But it wouldn\u2019t matter<\/em>\u2014it wouldn\u2019t shift the balance of the war towards Russia. If anything, staging a pseudo-referendum would be an own-goal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When evaluating a development\u2019s significance, one must analyze it from a variety of perspectives. The question that one must always ask is: \u201cWhat effect will this have?\u201d For what purpose<\/em> is something being done? As a small exercise, let us do so\u2014let us imagine that Russia holds a pseudo-referendum in one of the cities is temporarily occupies. What effect would this have?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How would it affect the military side of things? It wouldn\u2019t. Ukraine\u2019s counter-offensive plans would not alter a hair. The Kremlin\u2019s declaring an occupied territory its own republic or part of Russia would do nothing to deter Kyiv\u2019s designs. If anything, a pseudo-referendum would only work against Russia because Ukrainian forces\u2019 morale would almost certainly increase, as they would become even more resolved to liberate their territories.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What effect would it have on the international community? Nobody (discounting maybe Syria, Iran, Venezuela\u2014the usual suspects) would acknowledge the \u201creferendum\u201d as legitimate. Almost unanimous condemnation. And it would likely accelerate subsequent international sanctions. So, politically, a pseudo-referendum would accomplish nothing but further isolation, and economically, it would hasten Russia\u2019s ruin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What about domestically? Sure, those who are still on the Kremlin\u2019s IV drip of disinformation would view this as a long-awaited indicator of Russia\u2019s glorious success in the lands of the Ukrainian warlock-fascists, but these are the same people who genuinely believe the Defense Ministry every time it declares that the same village has been conquered for the fourteenth time in a row (see the section below on Russian politics). This segment of the population would have its rage further stoked, and perhaps some others would be convinced that \u201cprogress\u201d is being made in Ukraine\u2014but there are easier and less politically and economically costly ways of doing so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And in the information war? Well, this would give the Kremlin \u201clegal\u201d cover to say that Russian territories are being attacked by Ukrainian forces, which is the one condition that the Kremlin earlier said is a prerequisite for the use of nuclear weapons. But the Kremlin junta, for all its idiocy, has never been irrational\u2014its warped logic may seem that way to the onlooker, but the junta has always operated within the internal logic of its own criminal, might-makes-right worldview\u2014and has never had a desire to be locked in nuclear combat, so there\u2019s no utility on this front either. The Kremlin\u2019s mouthpieces internationally would have a little more ammo, but again\u2014at what cost?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So what effect would a pseudo-referendum have? Would it matter? No, it wouldn\u2019t matter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When Western media or officials seriously engage\u2014especially repeatedly engage\u2014with the possibility of a \u201creferendum,\u201d it legitimizes it. If I were to write \u201cPennsylvania secedes from the United States\u201d in crayon and publish a photo of it on social media, it would have as much legitimacy as any \u201creferendum\u201d that the Kremlin \u201cconducts\u201d in an occupied territory. Engaging in good faith or treating seriously something that is as transparently illegitimate or done in bad faith as a Kremlin-conducted \u201creferendum\u201d only legitimizes the Kremlin as a good-faith actor (much as when Western politicians give interviews to \u201cnews\u201d outlets controlled by authoritarian regimes), weakens our own position in the information war, and misleads audience members who may not be as informed about the nuances of geopolitics. Any put-on outrage or cynical call for \u201clegitimacy\u201d and \u201cfair treatment\u201d by the Kremlin must only be met with ridicule and mockery\u2014or else be memed into oblivion, a strategy adopted by the fellas of NAFO (see the section below on Ukrainian politics), who are among the few who actually understand how to counter an authoritarian regime\u2019s unfiltered bullshit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We must always ask the question \u201cfor what purpose?\u201d What effect(s) will this have\u2014on a variety of audiences across a variety of fronts? And when we do, things that may have seemed impenetrable or frightening before become less so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Situation in Ukraine\u2019s South<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian daily losses spiked precipitously after August 29, with most of the new losses coming from the south. Whereas before, Ukraine\u2019s official tally typically yielded between 100 and 200 slain Russian soldiers daily, after August 29, the standard daily number became 350, even reaching 450 on September 3. The Ukrainian advance is markedly different from that of the Russians: rather than recklessly pressing forward, sacrificing thousands of their own soldiers to overwhelm the adversary with flesh and bone, Ukrainians are employing higher quality heavy artillery to critically disrupt Russian logistics and C2 capabilities, and then advance once the demoralized Russian troops retreat from their compromised positions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By all appearances, Russian air defenses in the south have been decimated, as Ukraine\u2019s air forces are hitting targets practically unmolested. On September 1, Ukraine\u2019s military pilots executed 22 air strikes in Kherson Oblast\u2019, 24 more on September 2, and over 30 on September 5. Ukrainian forces also continue striking at the Russians\u2019 already weakened logistics, keeping all the crossings across the Dnipro impassable and systematically destroying supply depots and command centers\u2014including in the city of Kherson itself. As Oleksiy Arestovych has repeated in the last few daily chats with Mark Feygin: \u201cOur job is simple: uncover [a Russian depot, base, or grouping] and hit it. Uncover and hit, uncover and hit, uncover and hit.\u201d As he explained, though Russia still enjoys an advantage in numbers across the board, Ukraine\u2019s advantage is technological superiority and far better intelligence work. Commenting on the overall character of the war, he highlighted a key difference between the Russian and Ukrainian armies: Ukraine\u2019s armed forces are innately excellent improvisers, but are rapidly being forced to learn discipline, while Russia\u2019s armed forces always excelled at rigidly following orders, but were never particularly adaptable. The course of the war has been\u2014and will in large part be\u2014a function of how the two armies work to ameliorate their respective weaknesses, with the Ukrainians\u2019 rapidly augmenting their flexibility with order and the Russians\u2019 trying to undo centuries of military tradition and learning how to improvise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Elsewhere, the occupying forces in Melitopol\u2019 continue to be beleaguered. Though columns of Russian equipment and forces are passing through Melitopol\u2019, both en route to Kherson and en route east toward Berdyansk, Russian rallying points in the area are being destroyed one after another. On August 31, ten explosions sounded south of the city in an area where Russian forces tried to concentrate their equipment out of the Ukrainian forces\u2019 range<\/em>. On September 2, a strike against Russian stockpiles in the city itself resulted in detonations that lasted for hours. On September 3, five more explosions sounded at the city\u2019s Russian-controlled air base. And speaking of Berdyansk: partisans are at work there too now, having blown up a Russian administrative center on August 31.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian air defenses in Crimea have also found no reprieve, with pesky Ukrainian drones popping up at inconvenient times, as on September 3. In a solicitation of intel and a show of confidence, Ukrainian intelligence is openly imploring Crimeans to provide info on where Russian soldiers on the archipelago live and are being deployed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On September 4, open sources presaged what President Zelensky would later announce in the evening: three settlements\u2014two, including Vysokopillya, in the south, and Ozerne in the country\u2019s east\u2014had been liberated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Situation in Ukraine’s East<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Putin has given the order to capture Donetsk Oblast\u2019 by September 15,\u00a0fighting in the east has intensified\u00a0also, despite the fact that the Russian groupings there are boasting 10% of their original numbers and that\u00a040% of the equipment that new Russian units are getting is defective. Though the aforementioned spike in Russian losses is driven primarily by Ukrainian activity in the south, Russia\u2019s redoubled attempts in the east are contributing a fair share also: governor of Luhansk Oblast\u2019 Serhiy Gaidai, for example, snidely commented that \u201csomething has been going on\u201d in Kreminna for the last few days, with some 300 Russian troops meeting their end there. He subsequently reported on September 6 that\u00a0Ukrainian forces have actually made up a little bit of ground in Luhansk Oblast’, advancing a few hundred meters and fortifying their new positions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Per Oleg Zhdanov, a highly reliable Ukrainian military analyst, part of the reason for the Russians\u2019 renewed push may be their indisputable need to capture Slovyansk, which they need to distribute water in the occupied territories and without which their winter will be even worse than it is already slated to be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, a central element of the Russian forces\u2019 attempted offensive is the bombing of civilian targets: for example, mass shelling of Kharkiv Oblast\u2019 on September 1 destroyed 60 civilian objects, and on September 4, Russian forces shelled eleven settlements across Donetsk Oblast\u2019, killing four civilians in the region in one day. Nevertheless, Ukraine\u2019s air defense capabilities, while imperfect, are improving: on September 3, five Kalibr missiles flew at Dnipro at night, and all five were shot down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukrainian Politics and Activity in the Information War<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the online community has finally birthed an effective counter-disinformation force at scale: the rapidly growing force of fellas (of NAFO, the North Atlantic Fellas Organization), which is doing what the West\u2019s information forces should have been doing for years: one does not combat the Kremlin’s disinformation (only or even predominantly) with facts.\u00a0One combats it by neutering it with memes, and Ukraine’s administration understands this, with Defense Minister Reznikov changing his Twitter avatar to an appropriately dressed fella. The vaccine to nonsensical disinformation is a fortified information space, which consists of preventative media literacy education, a robust fourth estate, and effective regulation, among other elements\u2014but the serum lies in memes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian Politics and Activity in the Information War<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a landmark development, news dropped on August 31 that the National Republican Army (a Russian partisan organization\u2014the one that took responsibility for killing Dugina) and the Freedom of Russia Legion have signed a formal document declaring their cooperation in the effort to \u201cliberate Russia from Putin\u2019s tyranny, stop the Kremlin\u2019s terror against citizens of Russia and other countries, and to cease the war against Ukraine as quickly as possible.\u201d The document establishes a coordinating center for the groups, which will be headed by Ilya Ponomaryov, who, along with Mark Feygin, has been the most sober-minded Russia proponent of the need for Russia’s opposition to ready themselves for armed conflict against the Kremlin. This union and the clear designation of Ponomaryov as its leader signifies that the armed Russian opposition finally has political representation\u2014it has a face, an alternative for the leadership of Russia in the Kremlin junta\u2019s stead. This is a critical and long-overdue step for the opposition, and while it may not bear geopolitical fruit immediately, this breathes explicit political viability into a military movement that could not have succeeded on its own.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This development is in contrast with the better-known Russian opposition in exile, whose utter fecklessness has been laid bare by this war. This opposition\u2019s dithering was on display at the latest meeting of the Free Russia Congress in Vilnius, which concluded on September 2. At the Congress, that branch of the opposition spent its time\u00a0daydreaming about the post-Putin Russia of the future, explaining that not all Russians are to blame for the war, and protesting against the limitations on E.U. visas\u00a0because such limitations would affect some opposition members too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While Russia\u2019s armed opposition is consolidating, the Kremlin itself finds itself in something of a dead end. Last week, The Insider<\/em> published an investigative report delineating how Russia will run out of most shells, artillery, and armored vehicles by year’s end. The Defense Ministry\u2019s strategy in the information war has, unsurprisingly, not changed a whit: on September 2, everyone\u2019s favorite Defense Ministry spokesman Konashenkov declared that Russian forces have destroyed an eye-popping 44 HIMARS (i.e. dozens more than Ukraine has had up to this point), and on September 3, Shoigu announced that Russian forces have captured Peski, making it the fourth capture of Peski in a month and the eighth capture of Peski overall. Then, on September 6, Russian media alleged that they\u2019ve already destroyed an M2 Bradley and some Leopards in Ukraine\u2014a frightful assertion made less so by the fact that these vehicles aren\u2019t even in Ukraine yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other major developments in Russia from the past week included: (1) the first mysterious death of another prominent Russian businessman in months, when the head of Lukoil’s board of directors\u00a0died after falling six floors\u00a0from the window of the hospital at which he was being treated, and (2) the death and burial of Mikhail Sergeyevich Gorbachev, the symbolism of whose passing lends itself to a broad array of interpretations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lastly and very importantly: the tendrils of mobilization have finally reached Russians from Moscow and Leningrad Oblast\u2019s. Inhabitants of the main metropoli are being summoned to war\u2014particularly, to defend Crimea. The Russian populace is notoriously, historically inert, and the past six months have failed to make them stir from their archetypical cr\u00e8che of fear, indifference, and disorganization. But history has repeatedly shown that every authoritarian regime goes too far, and even the most inert of citizenries has a breaking point. The covert mobilization of the capital\u2019s inhabitants brings us one step closer to that breaking point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Elsewhere in Europe<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The past week saw the heated diplomatic battle over what to do about visas for Russians continue. The E.U. Foreign Minister Borrell still resists the idea of a blanket tourist visa ban, and prolonged inaction prompted the Baltic states, Poland, and Finland to threaten \u201cnational measures\u201d\u00a0on the matter if the E.U. does not act as one. Nevertheless, on August 31, marking some<\/em> progress, the foreign ministers of E.U. member states did\u00a0agree to suspend the simplified issuance of visas to Russians.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On September 4, a 70,000-person protest took place in Prague, where the protesters, organized by Kremlin-aligned Czech powers, demanded renewed energy ties with Russia, a cessation to military aid for Ukraine, neutrality in the war, the deportation of all UA refugees, and the resignation of Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s government, all while chanting unkind things about the E.U. and NATO.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alexander Rojavin \u201920, Law and Public Policy Scholar Alexander Rojavin is a multilingual intelligence, media, and policy analyst specializing in information warfare. He is currently working on a book on modern Russian cinema as a key battlefield in the Kremlin\u2019s information war. He is also co-chair of the Symposium on Disinformation Studies. In his spare time, he moonlights as a published literary translator (Routledge, Slavica Publishers, forthcoming Academic Studies Press). What follows is a chronicle of key events, trends, and … <\/p>\n

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He is currently working on a book on modern Russian cinema as a key battlefield in the Kremlin\u2019s information war. He is also co-chair of the Symposium on Disinformation Studies. In his spare time, he moonlights as a published literary translator (Routledge, Slavica Publishers, forthcoming Academic Studies Press). What follows is a chronicle of key events, trends, and ... 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