{"id":2564,"date":"2022-07-19T19:03:57","date_gmt":"2022-07-19T23:03:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www2.law.temple.edu\/lppp\/?p=2564"},"modified":"2022-07-19T19:04:00","modified_gmt":"2022-07-19T23:04:00","slug":"chronicling-days-one-hundred-and-thirty-nine-through-one-hundred-and-forty-six-of-the-information-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www2.law.temple.edu\/lppp\/chronicling-days-one-hundred-and-thirty-nine-through-one-hundred-and-forty-six-of-the-information-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Chronicling Days One Hundred and Thirty-Nine through One Hundred and Forty-Six of the Information War"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Alexander Rojavin \u201920, Law and Public Policy Scholar<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alexander Rojavin is a multilingual intelligence, media, and policy analyst specializing in information warfare. He is currently working on a book on modern Russian cinema as a key battlefield in the Kremlin\u2019s information war. He is also co-chair of the Symposium on Disinformation Studies. In his spare time, he moonlights as a published literary translator (Routledge, Slavica Publishers, forthcoming Academic Studies Press).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What follows is a chronicle of key events, trends, and anomalies from day 139 through day 146 of the Russian-Ukrainian war for democracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This report summarizes the military situation across Ukraine, Ukraine\u2019s politics and efforts in the information war, Russia\u2019s politics and efforts in the information war, and related developments in Europe and elsewhere in the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Situation in Ukraine\u2019s South<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The situation in the south described in the last weeks continues to hold. Ukrainian forces are quietly, steadily advancing towards Kherson, while Russian forces continue to terrorize the civilian population with reckless shelling. Russian missiles fall across Zaporizhzhia and Mykolaiv oblast\u2019s, injuring, for example, at least fourteen people in the city of Zaporizhzhia on July 13, hitting the city with MLRS on July 17, and destroying Mykolaiv\u2019s infrastructure possibly with strikes from an S-300.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Russian morale remains in freefall despite rotations of Russian forces in the region. An emblematic intercepted phone call betrays the Russian forces\u2019 panic when faced with Western heavy artillery: \u201cThey sit drinking coffee while we run around,\u201d whines a Russian soldier. There are reports that Russian forces are withdrawing their equipment from Melitopol\u2019. On July 16, a column of up to 100 units, including BMD-4s and APCs, moved through Mariupol\u2019 towards Zaporizhzhia Oblast\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukrainian forces, meanwhile, are pressing forward. As of July 14, 44 settlements had been liberated by the Ukrainian army in Kherson Oblast\u2019, progress accompanied by repeated, surgical strikes against Russian ammo depots and command posts in the region. On July 17, a youthful member of the Ukrainian National Guard shot down a Russian Su-25 on the Zaporizhzhia front. On July 18, Ukrainian forces struck another target in occupied Nova Kakhovka, prompting jokes that a new Chornobayivka is being born.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reports have also come in that much of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea has been relocated from Crimea to Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Situation in Ukraine\u2019s East<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the east, despite Lysychansk and Severodonetsk\u2019s surrender, Russian forces are still, weeks later, unable to capture all of Luhansk Oblast\u2019. Two villages (Bilhorivka and Verkhnekamenka) in Luhansk Oblast’ remain under Ukrainian control, and the Russians have repeatedly failed to push Ukrainian forces out of them. Russian forces nevertheless remain suicidally stubborn, and still committed to claiming all of Luhansk Oblast\u2019, capturing Siversk, Donetsk Oblast\u2019, and moving on to Slovyansk, Bakhmut, and Kramatorsk, which are the next major Ukrainian fortresses in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Civilians perish in the east every day, in Donetsk Oblast\u2019, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast\u2019, and Kharkiv Oblast\u2019, in which at least 959 civilians have been killed since February 24.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukrainian forces, however, are holding the line, launching intermittent surgical counterstrikes, as when they took out several Russian ammo depots in Luhansk Oblast\u2019 at night on July 13. On July 18, Russian forces were repulsed on four parts of the eastern front, while battles for Siversk and Bakhmut continued, under the watchful eye of both Ukraine\u2019s General Staff and Ukraine\u2019s journalists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Relatedly, per British intelligence, the Wagnerites have lost so many people in the campaign for Ukraine\u2019s east that they have lowered the bar to entry for new recruits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Elsewhere in Ukraine<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia\u2019s rocket terror has not ceased elsewhere in Ukraine too. On July 16, a missile struck Odesa, though it caused no casualties, thankfully. Russian missiles are also indiscriminately striking at targets in Sumy Oblast\u2019. And in Vinnytsia, a massive missile strike on July 14 killed at least 20 people (including 3 children) and damaged 55 buildings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Per Ukraine\u2019s official count, at least 1,346 civilians have lost their lives in Kyiv Oblast\u2019 since February 24.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And the SBU continues systematically tamping down on collaboration within the country. On July 17, SBU agents arrested the former head of the security service\u2019s Crimean branch on allegations of treason.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukrainian Politics and Activity in the Information War<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine\u2019s government is actively engaged in international diplomacy and information efforts and in domestic reforms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

President Zelensky has made a number of high-profile personnel changes this week, seeking to replace officials whose performance during the war has been viewed as lacking. On July 13, he appointed a new governor of Chernivtsi. Then, on July 17, he fired both SBU head Ivan Bakanov and Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova. Bakanov\u2019s firing had been discussed for over a week leading up to the dismissal, and the president separately justified his firing of the officials in his daily address, saying that a worrisome number of federal prosecutors and SBU agents has turned out to be collaborationists. (Rumors soon surfaced that Venediktova may be reassigned to a diplomatic post). On July 18, the Rada passed a resolution firing the Minister for Social Policy Maryna Lazebna, after which Prime Minister Shmyhal immediately put forth a replacement candidate: Oksana Zholnovich, the head of the Department of Social Policy and Healthcare of the Office of the President.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine\u2019s media are closely following the race to replace Prime Minister Johnson. Many Ukrainians\u2019 sympathies, voiced or otherwise, lie with Foreign Minister Liz Truss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine\u2019s diplomats remain hard at work. On July 13, Foreign Minister Kuleba, armed with coverage statistics, argued Ukraine is winning the information war against Russia\u2014unlike in 2014. Kuleba wants one manifestation of Ukraine\u2019s supremacy on the information front to be the successful sidelining of Russian athletes out of all major international sport events rather than having them perform under a neutral flag. Meanwhile, Ukraine was quick to respond when North Korea recognized the \u201cDNR\u201d and \u201cLNR.\u201d Mykhailo Podolyak in particular had an on-point response, saying that, before long, Russia\u2019s boon companions like North Korea might well recognize the independence of Buryatia or Tyva (republics currently a part of the Russian Federation).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Ukrainian government has also been fine-tuning its rhetoric regarding military service, holding the line that \u201cmilitary service in a democracy should be a personal choice to defend our common values\u2014never a compelled decision or a punishment.\u201d This rhetorical throughline is accompanying the General Staff\u2019s regular updates and various statements from Defense Minister Reznikov and Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar that underscore the Ukrainian military\u2019s competence. Reznikov, for example, stated that some 50% of all Russian missiles never reach their targets thanks to Ukraine\u2019s anti-air capabilities, and Malyar, always on rhetorical cleanup duty, is again asking the general public for restraint\u2014this time regarding information about Ukrainian POWs, whose return could be complicated if civilians blab too much about them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For all of Ukraine\u2019s unity, however, bickering and cheap, theatrical speculation among Ukraine\u2019s political class has resumed in full force. Predominantly, the internal political battle lines are between President Zelensky\u2019s and former President Poroshenko\u2019s factions, with the latter having been attempting to score political potshots since at least the siege of Azovstal\u2019. The three major outlets owned by Poroshenko\u2019s allies\u2014Espreso, Priamyi, and Channel 5\u2014have been frequently publishing material critical or near-critical of the current administration and its oversight of the war. The frequency is not quite pre-war levels, but a perusal of Espreso\u2019s homepage will not leave one with the impression that the outlet is particularly fond of President Zelensky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other factions are, naturally, also part of the fray. The Kremlin-fostered Opposition Platform, for example, is appealing its ban in Ukrainian politics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine\u2019s mobilized populace is also actively engaged in determining the country\u2019s future. In one visible example, a petition to remove a statue of Catherine the Great (whose reputation among Ukrainians and Jews is, naturally, not quite positive) in Odesa has gained enough signatures to merit President Zelensky’s attention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Relatedly, the future that the populace sees is a decidedly Western one, for which treaties such as the Istanbul Convention are being ratified and reforms like the new deoligarchization law are being passed. The latter is already bearing fruit: Ukraine\u2019s wealthiest oligarch and media mogul surrendered his media empire, as a result of which he has ceased being an oligarch in the eyes of the new law.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recently, Russian officials have been threatening hell to pay if Ukraine continues to resist the \u201cspecial operation,\u201d with Medvedev promising a \u201cjudgment day\u201d if Ukraine even thinks about attacking Crimea. Mykhailo Podolyak responded in a classically effective manner\u2014sarcastically: \u201cWhat\u2019ll you do? Kill another infant?\u201d On the same day, the anniversary of the shooting down of MH17, Ukrainian officials and outlets drew on the terrorist act and impending judicial resolution as a reminder that no Russian crimes will go unpunished. President Zelensky himself referenced the proceedings in his retort to Medvedev: \u201cThere will be a judgment day\u2014for Russia. And not figuratively, but literally.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian Politics and Activity in the Information War<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many commentators expected July 15, when the Duma held an extraordinary congress, to be yet another inflection day for the Kremlin\u2019s decision-making, much like what was expected of May 9. However, like May 9, July 15 proved to be underwhelming and again remedially indicative of the Kremlin\u2019s strategic aimlessness and indecision. The most significant thing that was announced on July 15 was the dismissal of Dmitry Rogozin as head of Roskosmos amid speculation that he will instead assume a high-ranking position within the Kremlin itself. As Mykhailo Podolyak said, \u201cCheap theater intrigues are the last way to spread dust and hide the fact that the king has been \u2018naked\u2019 for a long time.\u201d The Kremlin\u2019s political arsenal is, as always, highly predictable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Equally predictable and unchanged are Kremlin-aligned media\u2019s efforts in the information war. Themes and strains that were already rusty months ago continue to be deployed today\u2014and continue to signal what disquiets the Kremlin. Below are a few representative strains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A persistent and hyperbolic strain of the State Weakness and Dysfunction theme is that President Biden is somewhere between his deathbed (political or literal) and a psychiatric ward. To hear Russian media say it, President Biden is \u201cabout to impeached,\u201d \u201csenile,\u201d and \u201ca geopolitical failure.\u201d Alongside Russian outlets\u2019 already putting eggs into the Trump basket, the Kremlin\u2019s sympathies in American politics remain unchanged and, again, predictable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another State Weakness and Dysfunction strain focuses on the West\u2019s imminent disintegration, which Russian media have been prophesizing since February 24 and also for many years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet another State Weakness and Dysfunction strain is designed to dissuade the West from further supplying Ukraine with weapons: \u201cUkraine\u2019s fascist leadership is feckless, and Western weapons are being sold on the black market and constantly captured by Russian soldiers in the east.\u201d As Oleksiy Arestovych joked last week, \u201ceight out of four HIMARS in our possession have been destroyed.\u201d Jokes aside, strains like this play into any sudden burst of activity by Western officials who intentionally or inadvertently echo Kremlin talking points, much like Rep. Spartz (R-IN) has done throughout the week. The Kremlin is desperate to capitalize on any sign of discord in the West. To the Kremlin\u2019s dismay, however, Foreign Minister Kuleba said, by all appearances accurately, that Rep. Spartz’s burst of activity has done nothing to harm U.S.-Ukrainian relations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Speaking of HIMARS: the Provocation theme is also alive and well in Russia\u2019s information space. The West remains at all times a deceitful provocateur who is truly to blame for all the bloodshed. For example, one headline on Lenta flashes across the screen: \u201cEstonia Wants American HIMARS by 2025.\u201d Kremlin-aligned outlets would have the audience believe that this is the height of villainy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another persistent State Weakness and Dysfunction strain is meteorological in nature: Russian media love reporting on natural disasters in democracies worldwide as evidence of the democracies\u2019 ill-prepared governments fecklessness. For example: \u201cU.S. Sandstorm Kills at Least 6 in Mass Road Accident.\u201d In concert with other headlines splayed across news outlets\u2019 front pages, articles like this persuade the reader that life outside of Russia is rife with existential dangers and only the Kremlin can keep them at bay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Much as in Russia\u2019s information space President Biden remains a decrepit old man, Ukraine\u2019s leadership remains a collection of underhanded, blood-bathing warlocks. The Ukrainian Fascist Junta theme remains alive and well, and headlines about Ukraine\u2019s military command are more of the same: \u201cGerman Journalist Accuses Ukrainian Soldiers of Crimes in Donetsk,\u201d \u201cReports in LNR of Ukrainian Soldiers Bombing Alchevsk from MLRS HIMARS,\u201d \u201c[Ukrainian] Nationalists Placed Machine Guns and Missile Systems in Residential Houses in Kharkiv,\u201d \u201cDefense Ministry: Ukrainian Armed Forces Shelled Market in Slavyansk to Blame Russia\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, the Russian Leadership theme has not gone anywhere either. Outlandish headlines such as \u201cRussian Air Forces Eliminated up to 200 Nationalists and Mercenaries in Strike on Deployment Point in Nikolayev\u201d and \u201cRussian Defense Ministry Reports Destruction of Four Command Points of Ukrainian Armed Forces in Single Day with High-Precision Weapons\u201d leave one with the impression that, in order to save precious time, the Kremlin\u2019s propagandists simply take everything that happens to their own forces, then replace \u201cUkrainian\u201d with \u201cRussian\u201d and vice versa, and send that to press.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Elsewhere in Europe<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the United States has introduced new exceptions to its sanctions against Russia, Ukraine is collaborating with the E.U. on the eighth sanctions package. Germany, meanwhile, has declared that it will stop buying Russian coal by August 1 and oil by December 31.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Elsewhere, in a serious indicator of the Kremlin\u2019s waning strength, Serbia, which is friendly to the Putin regime, declared that it intends to start buying gas from Azerbaijan in 2023. And in Moldova, President Sandu continues straightening her country\u2019s spine by declaring that she \u201cwill not sell the country for cheap gas.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Elsewhere in the World<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While Israel intends to provide Ukraine with defensive gear, North Korea has recognized \u201cLNR\/DNR,\u201d prompting Ukraine to cut off diplomatic relations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, against the backdrop of Rep. Spartz\u2019s aforementioned burst of activity and visibility, the West has been assiduously dispelling the notion that Ukraine is an unreliable caretaker of Western weapons. Gen. Zaluzhny and Gen. Milley are in constant contact, and on July 14, the former assured his counterpart that Western weapons will under no circumstances fall into Russian hands. The past week has seen much rhetoric from U.S., E.U., and Ukrainian sources on the subject, vehemently countering the Kremlin-fostered strain that Western weapons are unsafe in Ukraine.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alexander Rojavin \u201920, Law and Public Policy Scholar Alexander Rojavin is a multilingual intelligence, media, and policy analyst specializing in information warfare. He is currently working on a book on modern Russian cinema as a key battlefield in the Kremlin\u2019s information war. He is also co-chair of the Symposium on Disinformation Studies. In his spare time, he moonlights as a published literary translator (Routledge, Slavica Publishers, forthcoming Academic Studies Press). What follows is a chronicle of key events, trends, and … <\/p>\n

Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"generate_page_header":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"coauthors":[67],"class_list":["post-2564","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","infinite-scroll-item","masonry-post","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-50"],"yoast_head":"\r\nChronicling Days One Hundred and Thirty-Nine through One Hundred and Forty-Six of the Information War - Law & Public Policy Program<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www2.law.temple.edu\/lppp\/chronicling-days-one-hundred-and-thirty-nine-through-one-hundred-and-forty-six-of-the-information-war\/\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Chronicling Days One Hundred and Thirty-Nine through One Hundred and Forty-Six of the Information War - Law & Public Policy Program\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Alexander Rojavin \u201920, Law and Public Policy Scholar Alexander Rojavin is a multilingual intelligence, media, and policy analyst specializing in information warfare. 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He is currently working on a book on modern Russian cinema as a key battlefield in the Kremlin\u2019s information war. He is also co-chair of the Symposium on Disinformation Studies. In his spare time, he moonlights as a published literary translator (Routledge, Slavica Publishers, forthcoming Academic Studies Press). What follows is a chronicle of key events, trends, and ... 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