{"id":2421,"date":"2022-06-16T16:51:36","date_gmt":"2022-06-16T20:51:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www2.law.temple.edu\/lppp\/?p=2421"},"modified":"2022-07-19T20:47:15","modified_gmt":"2022-07-20T00:47:15","slug":"chronicling-days-ninety-seven-through-one-hundred-and-thirteen-of-the-information-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www2.law.temple.edu\/lppp\/chronicling-days-ninety-seven-through-one-hundred-and-thirteen-of-the-information-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Chronicling Days Ninety-Seven through One Hundred and Thirteen of the Information War"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Alexander Rojavin ’20, Law and Public Policy Scholar<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alexander Rojavin is a multilingual intelligence, media, and policy analyst specializing in information warfare. He is currently working on a book on modern Russian cinema as a key battlefield in the Kremlin\u2019s information war. He is also co-chair of the Symposium on Disinformation Studies. In his spare time, he moonlights as a published literary translator (Routledge, Slavica Publishers, forthcoming Academic Studies Press).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What follows is a chronicle of key events and trends on the information battlefield from day 97 through day 113 of the Russian-Ukrainian war for democracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As previously, this report will bring readers\u2019 attention to some of the key moments and issues from this period of the war, during which Russian forces have still failed to take Severodonetsk despite an overwhelming numerical advantage, while Ukrainian forces have steadily begun advancing in the south in Zaporizhzhia Oblast\u2019 and Kherson Oblast\u2019, where Ukrainian forces are now 15-20 kilometers away from Kherson itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian media, meanwhile are committed to peddling whatever lies they must in order to (1) rhetorically prop up the economy, (2) convince readers that the West is hurtling into the abyss, and (3) downplay the significance of Western weapon supplies. All of which is to say that the Kremlin regime understands perfectly well the danger posed to it by Western heavy weaponry and sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Contours of the West\u2019s Win Condition<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In recent days, there has been a series of headlines in U.S. news outlets making it seem like the tides of war are turning against Ukraine. (I will link to none of them to deprive them of what little oxygen I can).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CNN published an article in which it reported on three possible scenarios of how the war would play out: (1) Russia makes incremental gains in east Ukraine; (2) a stalemate lasting months or years; (3) Russia declares \u201cvictory\u201d and declares an end to the \u201cspecial operation.\u201d Glaringly missing from the three scenarios is the one that is most realistic and obvious to anyone who has been following the situation on the ground and who is aware of Ukraine\u2019s political willpower: (4) Ukraine eventually receives enough military aid from the West to liberate all of its territories, including\u2014as Defense Minister Reznikov repeated today\u2014all of Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea. As mentioned above, Ukraine is already advancing in two of five operational vectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In all three scenarios, CNN, of course, only frames the Kremlin as the primary agent in the situation. CNN (and most other Western media) is addicted to making the Putin regime\u2014often literally, sometimes figuratively\u2014the subject of a sentence, and especially a headline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In another headline, CNN explains \u201cwhy Ukraine\u2019s longshot bid to join the EU is likely to enrage Putin.\u201d Here we go again: headlines like this are harmful. We do not care what Putin thinks about things. Trying to discern what dictators and authoritarian wannabes think or say about the actions of democratic nations is a waste of time, partly because the dictator\u2019s playbook and mindset are painfully predictable, and partly because their opinions about us should have no bearing on our values-based worldview and strategy. Yes, our geopolitical strategy must take into account what bothers dictators, what causes them disquiet, and we must leverage that effectively to weaken them. But anxiously wringing our hands about what Daddy Putin might think about one thing that we do or another is ludicrously self-defeating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even articles arguing for correct outcomes, like David Ignatius\u2019s In Ukraine, Is the Balance Tipping in Moscow\u2019s Favor? Not Yet, peddle harmful headlines. While Ignatius correctly argues that the West must more decisively supply Ukraine with the weapons for which the Zelensky administration has been asking, the op-ed\u2019s headline makes it sound like the balance could realistically tip in Moscow\u2019s favor at some point soon\u2014which is a framework that facts on the ground simply do not support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earlier today, NBC reported that President Biden admonished Secretaries Austin and Blinken for their vehement rhetoric supportive of Ukraine\u2019s victory in the war. Unsurprisingly, Russian media gleefully jumped on the instance\u2014and they are right to be gleeful, as such an admonishment represents a marked departure from the United States\u2019 previously set goal of a total defeat for the Putin regime, with President Biden correctly, if accidentally, saying that regime change in Russia is desirable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This war represents a civilizational clash between past and future, ossification and progress, unity and entropy, democracy and authoritarianism. The West is still being shaken awake after decades of slumber. But the Western democratic world now faces an opportunity to overcome its identity crisis. Authoritarian regimes around the world have chosen their course. Their identities are not novel, not complex, and not effective\u2014or, at least, they shouldn\u2019t be. But when the West struggles to position itself in direct opposition to authoritarianism, with which it cannot accept coexistence, then authoritarianism has a much easier time of things. When the West fails to accept that its objective should be the geopolitical defeat of authoritarianism and economic, political, and cultural independence from authoritarianism, we wind up in the current situation: a war that could have ended rather quickly if only the West provided Ukraine with weapons or implemented crippling sanctions ahead of time, if only the West closed the sky over Ukraine, if only the West supplied heavy artillery at least two months ago, if only, if only, if only.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A democracy is already forced to fight with one hand behind its back\u2014there is no reason why it should be toothless to boot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Military Aid<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

With Ramstein-3 having concluded, a new list of equipment has been promised Ukraine. While it is welcome, it is still markedly short of what Ukrainian officials have been asking for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Media have been reporting that some Western officials are beginning to be concerned that Russian forces are slowly achieving their objectives as Ukraine\u2019s military is pushed to the limit. There are multiple distasteful factors at work here. First among them is such an assessment\u2019s detachment from reality; as stated before, Ukrainian forces have been advancing in two of five operational directions\u2014and this is before most of the heavy Western artillery arrived. In the other three, Russian forces are barely making any headway, resulting in a tactical back-and-forth that has now lasted weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A second factor is a function of the West\u2019s inability to overcome its identity crisis. After failing to supply Ukraine with the weapons it needs, instead providing only a fraction, some in the West now worry that Ukraine\u2019s military has only a fraction of the weapons that it actually needs, which prevents Ukraine\u2019s forces from orchestrating a coordinated counter-offensive along the entire front. It is like seeing a fire threaten to engulf the neighbor\u2019s house at the end of the street, giving the neighbor a little water gun, then being shocked that the fire is slowly chewing away at the garage while ignoring the fact that the neighbor is using sandbags to successfully drive the fire back away from the porch. Maybe the one water gun isn\u2019t sufficient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In their daily chat on June 14th, Oleksiy Arestovych and Mark Feygin vented their frustration with the tempo at which the West is supplying weapons. Arestovych in particular let loose:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00abIf we had weapons, weapons, weapons and accompanying munitions, munitions, munitions, we\u2019d be able to solve the problem, solve the problem, solve the problem. I\u2019m laughing to tears over the West. Can you imagine if I told you, \u201cMark, I\u2019m in mortal danger, I need 200 dollars.\u201d And you\u2019d say, \u201cAleksei, not a problem. Of course I\u2019ll help you. I confirm everything you\u2019re saying, I\u2019ll even grant you candidate status to become a member of the Feygin Creditees Club.\u201d And I\u2019d say, \u201cTo fix things, I need $200.\u201d And you\u2019d reply, \u201cOf course! We\u2019ve already organized a third conference. Three conferences! We\u2019re not just sitting on our asses! We\u2019ve already organized a third conference, AND we\u2019ve gotten together three dollars to give to you. And we\u2019ll give you another dollar and a half.\u201d I\u2019d say, \u201cMark, you see, children are dying. And soldiers, to the tune of 100 people a day.\u201d \u201cWHAT?! Alyosha, what are you saying!? I didn\u2019t know! If I knew, I\u2019d have reacted completely differently\u2014here, have another twenty dollars. I\u2019m sure you\u2019ll make do with this.\u201d \u201cBut Mark, what about the full $200 that we need? Our civilization, our culture is being destroyed, etc. etc.\u201d \u201cYes, you\u2019re right. Here, have another two cents, and be off with you.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And this tug of war has been dragging on and on. Oh, and then, people come to you and say, \u201cYou know what? What if you guys just made up? What if you just made peace?\u201d \u201cWhat are you talking about? You yourselves said that we need to defend our nation\u2019s very soul!\u201d \u201cDon\u2019t worry about it\u2014just sign Minsk-III, and it\u2019ll all be better. And things will be better for us too\u2014we\u2019ll get gas, oil again.\u201d \u201cAnd what\u2019ll happen when he attacks again?\u201d \u201cWell, that\u2019ll be later. Remember, Alyosha: we have to give him a chance to save face.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mark, I simply cannot imagine a cheaper and worse comedy than this show with the West giving us heavy weaponry\u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arestovych ended the stream by showing a photo of a U.S. base with thousands of units of equipment standing immobile beneath the sky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The West\u2019s insufficient willpower in providing Ukraine the requisite equipment on time and in appropriate numbers is a consequence of Western society\u2019s identity crisis. The West still has not voiced cogently enough what it represents, as a result of which Ukraine will need to keep dividing its attention between defending itself from the criminal Russian forces and inspiring the West to finally, decades later, dot its i\u2019s and cross its t\u2019s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The West must wake up. Even if for now Western leaders are still hesitant to look at the situation with a clear gaze, Ukraine\u2019s forces will stop only when its lands and people are free from the occupier\u2019s presence. In several weeks\u2019 time, when Kherson is liberated, the cost and waste of the West\u2019s hesitation and the incompetence of the Russian forces will again be on display.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Concluding Thoughts<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Legally speaking, a genocide is occurring in Ukraine. At least 318 children have been slaughtered since February 24th. Countless more have been maimed or traumatized for life. Over 200,000 Ukrainian children have been forcedly deported. On battlefields where Ukrainian forces already have a critical mass of Western weaponry, they are advancing. Kherson will be liberated before summer\u2019s end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the West acts faster, Kherson will not be alone.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alexander Rojavin ’20, Law and Public Policy Scholar Alexander Rojavin is a multilingual intelligence, media, and policy analyst specializing in information warfare. He is currently working on a book on modern Russian cinema as a key battlefield in the Kremlin\u2019s information war. He is also co-chair of the Symposium on Disinformation Studies. In his spare time, he moonlights as a published literary translator (Routledge, Slavica Publishers, forthcoming Academic Studies Press). What follows is a chronicle of key events and trends … <\/p>\n

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He is currently working on a book on modern Russian cinema as a key battlefield in the Kremlin\u2019s information war. He is also co-chair of the Symposium on Disinformation Studies. In his spare time, he moonlights as a published literary translator (Routledge, Slavica Publishers, forthcoming Academic Studies Press). What follows is a chronicle of key events and trends ... 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