{"id":2364,"date":"2022-04-12T22:08:58","date_gmt":"2022-04-13T02:08:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www2.law.temple.edu\/lppp\/?p=2364"},"modified":"2022-07-19T20:55:07","modified_gmt":"2022-07-20T00:55:07","slug":"chronicling-days-forty-through-forty-seven-of-the-information-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www2.law.temple.edu\/lppp\/chronicling-days-forty-through-forty-seven-of-the-information-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Chronicling Days Forty through Forty-Seven of the Information War"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Alexander Rojavin \u201920, Law & Public Policy Scholar<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alexander Rojavin is a multilingual intelligence, media, and policy analyst specializing in information warfare. He is currently working on a book on modern Russian cinema as a key battlefield in the Kremlin\u2019s information war. He is also co-chair of the Symposium on Disinformation Studies. In his spare time, he moonlights as a published literary translator (Routledge, Slavica Publishers, forthcoming Academic Studies Press).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What follows is a chronicle of key events and trends on the information battlefield from day 40 through day 47 of the Russian-Ukrainian war for democracy. This week likely marked the end of the transition phase preceding the all-out war for the east of Ukraine, from Kharkiv in the north to Mariupol\u2019 in the southeast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I am writing this shortly after Austrian Chancellor Nehammer met with Putin and said that he \u201cdid not receive any positive impressions from the meeting whatsoever.\u201d As I write this, the situation in Mariupol\u2019 is taking on new flavor\u2014fighters from the Azov Battalion defending the city claim that the Russians have used more advanced chemical weapons than phosphorus, but that they were used \u201cwithout catastrophic effects. These idiots can\u2019t even use weapons of mass destruction properly.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This claim has yet to be confirmed.<\/strong> If the Russians truly have implemented what the Azov fighters are alleging, then the West will be confronted with its own promises to become more involved in case chemical weapons become deployed. It has been several hours, and neither Moscow nor Kyiv have commented on the situation yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Day 40: April 4<\/strong>
\u2022 Readers of these reports should understand that an information war may take place on battlefields that most consider unexpected. I got my start analyzing information warfare through the prism of cinema. Information warfare happens in TV commercials. There are lots of battlefields. Readers should therefore not be surprised to discover that search engines are one such battlefield. Case in point: though this is no longer the case, on April 4th, when you used DuckDuckGo to search for \u201cBucha,\u201d you got images of Bucha post-occupation. However, when you searched for it in Cyrillic, \u00ab\u0411\u0443\u0447\u0430\u00bb, you were treated to peaceful scenes of a dainty little town. Because DuckDuckGo relies on the Russian government-owned search engine Yandex to provide results for Cyrillic searches, this was an inevitable phenomenon. Naturally, Yandex users even today are unlikely to find scenes of Bucha\u2019s destruction straight away.
\u2022 British intelligence announced that it knew ahead of time that Russian forces would kill civilians.
\u2022 It became known that Facebook and Instagram had begun to block #Bucha and #BuchaMassacre hashtags. This would later turn out to be the result of an algorithm misinterpreting what the hashtags were being used for, but this represents another inflection point for wartime activism in an era of social media.
\u2022 Reports surfaced that Georgia, despite the planned staged referendum in South Ossetia, was still kowtowing to the Kremlin, as Russia tried to establish smuggling channels through the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Day 41: April 5<\/strong>
\u2022 European nations began expelling Russian diplomats en masse.
\u2022 Russian outlets began aggressively spreading the narrative that Ukrainian forces were using chlorine and phosphorus in the south. The Ukrainian forces were doing no such thing, but any time Russian outlets begin spreading this narrative strain in a coordinated manner, you can safely place a bet that Russian forces will shortly implement whatever they\u2019re accusing their adversaries of using.
\u2022 The unity which was endemic in Ukraine for the first four weeks of the war began to show cracks. Any civilization has its archetypes, and Ukraine is no exception. One such archetype is the performatively, vocally hyper-patriotic Ukrainian, wearing a traditional Ukrainian vyshyvanka<\/a>, insistently chanting \u201cGlory to Ukraine!\u201d Many Americans would recognize it as an analogue of a similar kind of performative patriotism\u2014often lacking substance\u2014in the United States. Every nation has its analogue. \u201cHe is the biggest patriot who screams he is the patriot the loudest.\u201d In Ukraine, representatives of this archetype\u2014and some others, to be fair\u2014who happen to be in positions of power have begun to speculate on lingering areas of difficulty in Ukraine, such as Mariupol\u2019. These people have chosen now, a time of war during which the nation must unequivocally be united, to begin indirectly jockeying for political advantage: \u201cWhy are our politicians doing nothing while Mariupol\u2019 is still under siege? How dare they sit in Kyiv while our children in the east are dying beneath Russian bombs?\u201d Etc. etc. etc. This distasteful opportunism, combined with the fact that 40 days of uninterrupted warfare can exhaust the most stoic among us, has begun to drain the unity that kept Ukrainians, warriors and civilians, in such spirits during the war\u2019s first days. One hopes that these politicians will set aside certain modes of behavior prescribed to them by the archetype they represent and recalls what enabled Ukraine to be so effective on the defensive during the war. And we must not despair\u2014after all, there is another Ukrainian archetype too: the proud, unyielding freedom-fighter who will defend liberty unflinchingly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Day 42: April 6<\/strong>
\u2022 Turkey\u2019s embassy returned from Cherkassy to Kyiv\u2014another important data point showing how the flow of diplomacy began to more confidently redirect itself back to the capital
\u2022 Ukraine continued to show digital agility by creating another specialized Telegram chatbot, this one to crowdsource the cataloguing of Russian war crimes.
\u2022 The Kremlin continued to search for an effective strategy in a post-Bucha information war while simultaneously trying to lay the groundwork for the war\u2019s second phase in Ukraine\u2019s east. The activity of Russian outlets indicated that the Kremlin\u2019s efforts would continue to be reactionary, cynically unhinged from reality, domestically and internationally toxic, and devoid of much inventiveness.
\u2022 Ukraine\u2019s Center for Countering Disinfo explicitly brought people’s attention to U.S. politicians on the Kremlin’s dime spreading disinformation. In particular, the Center singled out Tulsi Gabbard and her appearances on Fox as an obedient vector of Kremlin talking points.
\u2022 To the point of cracking Ukrainian unity: a few days earlier, three channels owned by President Zelensky\u2019s predecessor Petro Poroshenko (Espreso TV, Pryamy Channel, and Channel 5) were taken off the air (and they have not since been restored). Poroshenko\u2019s allies, along with unaffiliated journalists and commentators criticized the development, as no reason had been given whatsoever. Moreover, these channels firmly adhered to the guidelines set forth by Ukraine\u2019s government and were not even remotely Kremlin-aligned\u2014though they did go out of their way to show Poroshenko and his allies in a good light, even during the war. When Ukraine\u2019s Council on Television and Radio was asked why this happened, a spokesperson said that the Council had not given any such order. There is a lengthier analysis to be had on this subject, but the short of it is that someone with power over or intimate connections to Ukraine\u2019s television and radio authority decided to settle scores and ordered the channels be taken down. Unless evidence is given that these channels were indisputable Kremlin agents, we must hope that they will soon be restored, irrespective of their mostly harmless pro-Poroshenko bias.
\u2022 Remember how Russian outlets spent the preceding day accusing the Ukrainians of using chemical weapons in Mariupol? Well, would it surprise you to learn that Russian forces dropped phosphorus bombs on Mariupol\u2019 on this day?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Day 43: April 7<\/strong>
\u2022 Oleksiy Arestovych confirmed that Ukrainian officials were establishing a list of names of the Russians who were in Bucha. (A few days later, it would come out that Ukrainian authorities were doing so partly with the help of facial recognition technologies).
\u2022 German intelligence echoed British intelligence from a few days earlier: the Russians had been planning to kill civilians all along.
\u2022 The activity of Russian outlets clearly revealed the Kremlin\u2019s mounting disquiet over the prospect of heavier weaponry being delivered to Ukraine. Russian outlets tried eroding Ukrainian morale by alleging that the new weapons they were receiving were actually old and barely functioning.
\u2022 The most curious event on this day was actually a briefing by Citizen Lukashenko, who explained that over a thousand Belarusian vehicle drivers had been abducted by the Ukrainians. He proceeded to claim that Belarus had conducted a special operation to free the drivers. Addressing, among others, Russian onlookers, he said: \u201cWe conducted such a special operation, we freed all our people. We conducted it so well that even you didn’t notice it.\u201d Now, no such operation took place. But the Kremlin has been greatly displeased with Belarusian forces\u2019 reticence to enter the war, and Lukashenko likely staged this little scene to make it seem like he is in total alignment with the Russians.
\u2022 Concrete details of some of the rapes that were committed in Kyiv Oblast\u2019 came to light: a 14-year-old girl, an 11-year-old boy, and a 20-year-old woman.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Day 44: April 8<\/strong>
\u2022 Russian outlets maintained their attempts to drown out the revelations from Bucha by pushing out the typical narrative strains, including how Ukrainians are savaging Russian POWs, how Russian nobility and compassion are on display anywhere there are Russian soldiers, and how the West is simultaneously a cynical cabal of unstoppable, hypocritical, imperialist warmongers and a helpless smattering of political amateurs way out of their league with little understanding of affairs either at home or beyond their borders.
\u2022 Heavy weaponry began to arrive in Ukraine: Slovakia transferred an S-300 anti-air system.
\u2022 A poll surfaced revealing that 98% of adult Ukrainian who fled plan to return home, 33% of them in the near future.
\u2022 Dmitry Muratov, chief editor of Novaya Gazeta and last year\u2019s Nobel Peace Prize recipient, was drenched in red paint in the Samara metro. A man yelled, \u201cThis is for our boys,\u201d and doused him. Such is the attitude towards actual journalists in Russia.
\u2022 In a liberated settlement in Kherson, it became known that the Russians raped, among others, a pregnant 16-year-old and a 78-year-old grandmother.
\u2022 The day\u2019s biggest event became two Russian missiles striking a train station in Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast, where 4,000 people were waiting to evacuate. 39 of them (including 4 children) died immediately, and over a dozen more would die from their wounds in the next few days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In another example of Russian media\u2019s reactionary lack of coordination, outlets had to contort themselves to make the missile strike fit their talking points. In the night, official outlets and Kremlin-associated Telegram channels heralded that \u201cRussian forces were herding Ukrainian troops together in Donetsk\u201d and warned locals not to use Kramatorsk\u2019s train station to evacuate. In the morning, the missile strike happened. One of the missiles had \u201cFOR THE CHILDREN\u201d written on it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian outlets first crowed about a successful operation to destroy Ukrainian military targets. After Ukrainian officials announced what happened, these articles and posts were quickly deleted, and Russian outlets raced to announce that Ukrainian forces had bombed the station themselves, that they wanted to disrupt the evacuation, and that it couldn\u2019t possibly have been the Russians, who don\u2019t even have Tochka-U missiles in their arsenal (a repeatedly disproven assertion).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This instance of rhetorical whiplash is nothing new: it is most reminiscent of the Kremlin\u2019s communications after the shooting down of MH-17 in 2015. The first reaction was \u201cWe took down a Ukrainian military plane!\u201d and immediately after it became clear that it was a civilian Boeing with 298 people onboard, Russian outlets pivoted to the subsequent miasma of conspiracy theories.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Day 45: April 9<\/strong>
\u2022 Russia\u2019s Duma began examining a bill that would simplify the process of adopting the thousands of Ukrainian children whom they’ve kidnapped (separating them from their parents, naturally). Brings back memories from Francoist Spain, where Franco supporting-doctors simply stole women’s infants at birth and told them women that the children had died.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Day 46: April 10<\/strong>
\u2022 Former Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov cited sources in the Russian government to say that Russia has actually lost ~25,000 in this war rather than the ~19,500 the Ukrainians have ascertained.
\u2022 The activists blocking sanction-forbidden exports and imports on the Polish-Belarusian border called it quits after the latest package of sanctions made it formally illegal for Russian and Belarusian cargo trucks to enter the E.U.
\u2022 Russian outlets continued to push strains about how Russians taken prisoner were being mistreated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Day 47: April 11<\/strong>
\u2022 Some companies have been circumventing sanctions. Shell, prominently, has been mixing 49% RU oil with 51% other oil.
\u2022 25,000-30,000 Ukrainians are returning to the country daily.
\u2022 The Kremlin is focusing all of its outlets on intimidating or misleading the West into stopping arming Ukraine. Example: Russian outlets reported that the Slovakian S-300 has already been destroyed (not true), so \u201cwhy give more weapons to these untrained goons?\u201d Another example: \u201cUkrainians are surrendering en masse, and all your Western weaponry is now in our hands.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Concluding Thoughts<\/strong>
(1) There are supposed to be heavy rains all along Ukraine\u2019s eastern front. As is known, rain is not typically the friend of the attacking side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(2) War fatigue is absolutely setting in, but it is far too early to declare any massive victories. We must take heart in each small victory, in every liberated oblast\u2019 and every liberated village, but the ultimate victory condition is regime change in Russia and the nation\u2019s liberalization, a process that will take decades. There are other intermediate objectives, but only this eventuality should be viewed as total victory in this war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regime change has been a dirty term for many since the failed military adventurism of the Bush years, but what the United States engaged in during the very beginning of the century was never coherent. Regime change is a legitimate democratic geopolitical objective when authoritarian states are involved\u2014especially when one such state is slaughtering tens of thousands of civilians and only a fundamental change in the nation\u2019s regime can end the butchery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Viktor Shenderovich said in a recent interview, it is not humanism to abstain from wishing the death of a tyrant. Likewise, it is a false liberalism to abstain from pursuing regime change\u2014coherent regime change, buffeted by an understanding of culture, history, art, literature, and politics. Regime change must stop being a dirty term for Western ears and be acknowledged as a key objective in democracy\u2019s war with autocracy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alexander Rojavin \u201920, Law & Public Policy Scholar Alexander Rojavin is a multilingual intelligence, media, and policy analyst specializing in information warfare. He is currently working on a book on modern Russian cinema as a key battlefield in the Kremlin\u2019s information war. He is also co-chair of the Symposium on Disinformation Studies. In his spare time, he moonlights as a published literary translator (Routledge, Slavica Publishers, forthcoming Academic Studies Press). What follows is a chronicle of key events and trends … <\/p>\n

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He is currently working on a book on modern Russian cinema as a key battlefield in the Kremlin\u2019s information war. He is also co-chair of the Symposium on Disinformation Studies. In his spare time, he moonlights as a published literary translator (Routledge, Slavica Publishers, forthcoming Academic Studies Press). What follows is a chronicle of key events and trends ... 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