{"id":2330,"date":"2022-03-10T21:08:04","date_gmt":"2022-03-11T02:08:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www2.law.temple.edu\/lppp\/?p=2330"},"modified":"2022-07-19T21:03:36","modified_gmt":"2022-07-20T01:03:36","slug":"chronicling-days-twelve-through-sixteen-of-the-information-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www2.law.temple.edu\/lppp\/chronicling-days-twelve-through-sixteen-of-the-information-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Chronicling Days Twelve through Fifteen of the Information War"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Alexander Rojavin \u201920, Law & Public Policy Scholar<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alexander Rojavin is a multilingual intelligence, media, and policy analyst specializing in information warfare. He is currently working on a book on modern Russian cinema as a key battlefield in the Kremlin\u2019s information war. He is also co-chair of the Symposium on Disinformation Studies. In his spare time, he moonlights as a published literary translator (Routledge, Slavica Publishers, forthcoming Academic Studies Press).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What follows is an attempt to chronicle key events and trends on the information battlefield from day twelve through day fifteen of the Russian-Ukrainian war for democracy. This one is longer than my previous reports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These four days are marked by:
(1) Obstinate pro-Ukrainian rallies in occupied towns like Kherson, Berdyansk, and Melitopol\u2019.
(2) The increasing visibility of the \u201cbio labs\u201d disinformation strain and Russia\u2019s determination to convince everyone that Ukraine is behind the war crimes (e.g. it\u2019s Ukrainian fascists killing their own civilians in Mariupol\u2019).
(3) Kremlin-aligned outlets\u2019 continuing inability to diversify its arsenal of narrative strains that can actually stick.
(4) The increasing ferocity and inhumanity of the Russian invaders\u2019 attacks on civilians.
(5) The invaders\u2019 further worsening morale, increasing surrender rates, and waning resources (think about the stalled, fuel-less column of dead metal ostensibly en route to Kyiv).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Holding all else constant, during this period, the war\u2019s historical trajectory has become clear: Russia will be unable to conquer Ukraine. Russia will lose the war. The only remaining questions are:
(1) How many more civilians will have to die before the war ends (in large part a function of (a) when the West takes any of the necessary steps to implement a no-fly zone and (b) when a critical combination of oligarchs successfully deposes Putin and his whisperers)?
(2) How exactly will Russia\u2019s loss manifest itself for the ruling class (for lower classes, the war is already manifesting itself as utter financial ruin)? I.e. what precisely will be the magnitude of Russia\u2019s defeat across the economic, political, military, and geographical spectra?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Day Twelve<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the war\u2019s twelfth day, rumors surfaced of a coup brewing in the Kremlin, with Defense Minister Shoigu allegedly at its helm. Given that these rumors made their way even into Western media, the likelihood of any such coup\u2019s success or even existence should be taken with a sizeable grain of salt. However, much less dubious is the possibility that Shoigu is being set up as the main scapegoat for the war\u2019s failures\u2014once they are admitted, that is. It is difficult to predict exactly what combination of oligarchs and senior officials will be behind the nigh-inevitable coup\u2014something that Bellingcat leader Christo Grozev echo in an interview with Dmytro Gordon on day fourteen\u2014but Shoigu will certainly be involved in some capacity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Day twelve also featured the third round of the feckless Russian-Ukrainian negotiations. While the Russian invaders would repeatedly violate the agreed-upon ceasefires in the coming days, the negotiations yielded an important data point: the Kremlin was ceding ground. Whereas before, the main demand seemed to be Ukraine\u2019s capitulation, veiled behind the nonsensical \u201cdenazification\u201d rhetoric, this time, the Russian side asked that Ukraine recognize Donbass and Crimea and commit to neutrality. As Russian losses continue to mount, it will be important to track how further Russian demands evolve\u2014and diminish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the Russian orcs took control of TV and radio in the occupied city of Melitopol\u2019, the Ukrainian TV marathon added another \u201ccommercial break\u201d interlude to its arsenal, this one featuring all of Ukraine\u2019s faith leaders standing united in support of Ukraine\u2019s future and against the invasion. The holistic image of the post-war Ukraine promised by these interludes is not only a bastion of democratic liberalism, but an innately diverse, multi-faith, multiethnic one. This image stands out all the more clearly against the fact that Russian marauders in Kyiv and Zhytomyr Oblast\u2019s had blown up two churches earlier in the day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian attempts to take control of isolated parts of Ukraine\u2019s information space continued to be met with ferocious civilian resistance. In occupied Chernobyl, the same thing happened that occurred a few days earlier in Kherson: the Russians brought in humanitarian aid and cameras to film the power plant\u2019s staff accepting it. To their incomprehension, the Ukrainian staff refused to accept the aid. There was nothing to film. (Two days later, reports would appear of Russians simply torturing the staff of the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia in an attempt to get them to cooperate with Russian propaganda efforts).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the overall narrative regarding the invaders\u2019 awareness of their purpose began to change. More and more POWs admitted that they knew exactly what they were being sent to do. They knew ahead of time that they were headed to Ukraine. They knew why they were being sent to Ukraine. They had orders to open fire on civilians and on residential areas. And they had orders to open fire on their own comrades if they refused to carry out the previous orders. A press conference on day fourteen with several POWs would confirm these facts to international media.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And the international community itself continued to layer on more sanctions. Moreover, E.U. members implemented a ban on a slew of Kremlin-aligned TV channels, which could no longer broadcast across Europe. At the same time, YouTube banned two channels run by Vladimir Solovyov, the Kremlin\u2019s rabidly xenophobic Goebbels wannabe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Day Thirteen<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Relatively few standout moments concerning the information war occurred on day thirteen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian outlets continued scrounging for a narrative that would stick\u2014a difficult task given that none of their disinformation could have a shelf life longer than a few minutes outside of Russia\u2019s information space. To this end, they tried to misquote Zelensky as saying that he was open to recognizing Crimea as Russian and Donetsk and Luhansk as separate republics. (He, of course, said no such thing, because if he had, he would\u2019ve been immediately buried by his own people. What he had actually said was that the question was bound to come up in negotiations, but any such negotiations would have to happen directly between presidents, which did not frighten Ukraine).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A moment that caused most onlookers to arch an eyebrow occurred when news dropped that the UN had forbidden its staff from calling the war a \u201cwar\u201d or an \u201cinvasion.\u201d The UN quickly refuted this, calling the mishap either a fake or a mistake, but nobody should find any consolation in the fact that the allegation easily passed the smell test of \u201cthings that UN could very well have done.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In another laughable attempt at propaganda, Nataliya Poklonskaya, an aggressively anti-Ukrainian prosecutor from Crimea who switched sides to Russia after the 2014 invasion, arrived in Kherson with another truck of humanitarian aid. She was accompanied by cameramen who wanted to film her handing out food to the locals. Instead, the Ukrainian government rudely welcomed her back to the country by declaring \u201copen season\u201d on her head.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To Kherson\u2019s east, the orcs besieging Mariupol\u2019 continued to bombard the city, which faced and continues to face a humanitarian catastrophe. No heat, no running water, dwindling food. Early in the day, a six-year-old girl died of dehydration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Day Fourteen<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Day fourteen began with the same orcs bombing a maternity clinic. Mariupol\u2019\u2019s city council approximated that at least 1,300 people had been killed over two weeks. The word \u201cgenocide\u201d was figuring more and more in commentators\u2019 assessment of the situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Russia, the domestic information space, which the Kremlin was trying to make impregnable through Roskomnadzor and the Prosecutor General, continued to show new cracks. The Ministry of Defense was forced to admit that are indeed conscripts fighting in Ukraine (which is technically illegal). In the same communication, the Ministry offered a masterclass in understatement, admitting that there had been \u201can attack\u201d on the Russian military, and that \u201csome soldiers\u201d had been captured. Putin was forced to theatrically declare that he had ordered the Prosecutor General to investigate how such a thing could have possibly happened. Someone had<\/em> to be punished. The fa\u00e7ade was cracking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At this point, Ukraine\u2019s military leadership voiced its assessment that Russian forces had stalled severely. The invaders were no longer even really trying to advance\u2014they were more preoccupied with holding territory that they had temporarily gained, and they had actually transferred most of their attention to the information battlefield (recall Poklonskaya\u2019s stunt from the day before), where, as we know, the Kremlin has had little success.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also on this day, the narrative about the United States funding bio labs in Ukraine finally spread internationally. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki was confronted with the narrative, which she officially laid to rest. And, curiously, Chinese sources began echoing the narrative as well\u2014however, in their rendition, Ukraine and Russia were nearly irrelevant to the story, and it was merely the United States\u2019 hypocrisy that was at issue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, the Ukrainian government launched an information offensive directed at Russian pilots: you bring us one of your planes, and we accept your surrender, save your life, and pay you $1,000,000. Same deal for a helicopter, but you get half a million instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Day Fifteen<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As of today, Ukrainian public opinion, which had already been overwhelming, has strengthened further. A new poll shows that 92% of Ukrainians are now confident in a looming military victory, up from 88% several days prior. 42% of Ukrainians, meanwhile, believe that there can be no discussion of restoring friendly relations with Russia. Russian tanks, which the Kremlin believed would be met with flowers and thunderous applause, have instead obliterated the last vestiges of good will that may have existed in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Ukrainian TV marathon continues to hold down the information front. Hosts informed viewers that they should be vigilant concerning three primary disinformation narrative strains being pushed by the Kremlin:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(1) The first is a strain that appeared a few days prior: apparently, Ukrainians in Zhytomyr (just northwest of Kyiv) were orchestrating pogroms of Jews.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(2) The second strain concerned racist discrimination against foreign students in Ukraine. Though there have assuredly been instances of such discrimination on the western border, especially against African students fleeing toward Poland, these instances have since been weaponized and magnified by the Kremlin\u2019s propaganda machine, hoping that it would eclipse reports of genocide and other war crimes being committed by Russian invaders. Western media, for which the subject of racism has been front and center for a few years, proved particularly susceptible to this narrative and fueled it for several days, though it appears to have waned slightly in the past few days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(3) The third strain is the bio labs narrative, which had finally gone international a day earlier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukrainian coders, meanwhile, continued to show their adaptability. The government released a new chatbot with whose help people could report on the Russian invaders\u2019 movements. Moreover, the chatbot used a special program that could only be accessed by Ukrainian citizens, so Russian sympathizers and trolls cannot abuse the chatbot and send false reports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the end of the day, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov confirmed that Ukraine had begun preparing for the invasion in November 2021. However, as I hypothesized in an earlier report, Ukrainian leaders kept denying the impending invasion for the sake of the information war and in an attempt to minimize panic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Defense Minister Reznikov repeated that the invaders\u2019 advances has stalled on all fronts, that they are now simply trying to hold what ground they\u2019ve managed to occupy, and have poured more resources into the information war\u2014this as China\u2019s Foreign Minister referred to the war as a \u201cwar\u201d for the first time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reznikov also noted that the invaders have slaughtered more civilians in the fifteen days of war than soldiers. He said this shortly after it became known that the Russian orcs, after they killed the mayor of Gostomel\u2019, planted mines on his body.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Concluding Thoughts<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

(1) In an interview with Dmytro Gordon, Internal Ministry adviser Anton Gerashchenko brought attention to a phenomenon that has gone overlooked by most commentators (not just Western, but even in Ukraine too). While it has been said many times that Putin accomplished what nobody else could (the near-total unification and rallying of the West), through this invasion, Putin also accomplished something else: the near-eradication of the Ukrainian fifth column<\/a>. There are no remaining pro-Russian politicians in Ukraine, and it will be just about impossible for them to exist after the war ends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(2) Our family friend wrote to us today. She is in Kyiv, where there is no fighting currently, but where the battles in the surrounding areas (Bucha, Gostomel\u2019, Irpin\u2019) can be heard very well. She said her oldest daughter has been sleeping through the night. The middle daughter can\u2019t. She cries all night, because she is scared.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(3) This should not come as a surprise, but many moments in the information war between Russia and Ukraine cannot be translated. Some linguistic aspects of the war are<\/em> somewhat accessible. For example, there has been some coverage of \u201cthe Ukraine\u201d versus \u201cUkraine\u201d (tip: never use the former) and \u201cKyiv\u201d versus \u201cKiev\u201d (the former is the transliterated Ukrainian spelling, the latter is the transliterated Russian spelling), but much of the information war happens in the languages\u2019 syntax. I will write about this more another time, but, try as I may to convey the information war\u2019s key trends and events, there are some linguistically bound aspects of the war that cannot be properly communicated to an audience that does not know the involved languages. For example, many Ukrainian journalists are ironically calling the invaders \u201cliberators,\u201d but they write the word in Russian and they spell it incorrectly. Instead of spelling it o<\/em><\/strong>svo<\/strong>bo<\/strong>diteli<\/em>, they write a<\/em><\/strong>sva<\/strong>ba<\/strong>diteli<\/em>, taunting the invaders\u2019 illiterate savagery. The best analogue in English would involve dipping into online meme grammar and instead of writing \u201cliberators,\u201d writing \u201cLiBeRaToRs.\u201d There are many untranslatable aspects of the information war like this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That said, I can<\/em> explain that some Ukrainian outlets (like Hromadske<\/em>) are employing a fun means of disrespecting the aggressor: they publish all Russian proper nouns without capitalizing the first letter (e.g. \u201cputin,\u201d \u201crussia,\u201d \u201cmoscow,\u201d etc.).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(4) I end with two quotes diagnosing Russia\u2019s future and present respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first is from Russian journalist Aleksander Nevzorov, who wrote last week that \u201cin two-three months, Russia\u2019s most difficult problem will be deciding what to call their new country [occupying only part of the territory that Russia used to occupy].\u201d Japan has already reasserted its ownership of the Kurile Islands. After Ukraine liberates Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk, observers would be well-advised to pay attention to the fate of regions like Karelia, Kaliningrad\/K\u00f6nigsberg, Yakutia, Tatarstan, Chechnya, and a slew of other republics forming the threadbare tapestry of Russia\u2019s fading imperial legacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Perhaps the discourse concerning Russia\u2019s post-war identity has already begun: many protesters around the world are hoisting a modified Russian flag, with the bottom red stripe replaced by a second white stripe. \u201cNo more blood.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The second quote was uttered today by one of Ukraine\u2019s news anchors: \u201cPutin\u2019s mistake was that he sent slaves to fight a nation of free people.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alexander Rojavin \u201920, Law & Public Policy Scholar Alexander Rojavin is a multilingual intelligence, media, and policy analyst specializing in information warfare. He is currently working on a book on modern Russian cinema as a key battlefield in the Kremlin\u2019s information war. He is also co-chair of the Symposium on Disinformation Studies. In his spare time, he moonlights as a published literary translator (Routledge, Slavica Publishers, forthcoming Academic Studies Press). What follows is an attempt to chronicle key events and … <\/p>\n

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He is currently working on a book on modern Russian cinema as a key battlefield in the Kremlin\u2019s information war. He is also co-chair of the Symposium on Disinformation Studies. In his spare time, he moonlights as a published literary translator (Routledge, Slavica Publishers, forthcoming Academic Studies Press). What follows is an attempt to chronicle key events and ... 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