{"id":2132,"date":"2020-10-17T20:24:41","date_gmt":"2020-10-18T00:24:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www2.law.temple.edu\/lppp\/?p=2132"},"modified":"2020-10-17T20:24:45","modified_gmt":"2020-10-18T00:24:45","slug":"the-kremlin-is-nothing-more-than-a-band-of-predictable-criminals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www2.law.temple.edu\/lppp\/the-kremlin-is-nothing-more-than-a-band-of-predictable-criminals\/","title":{"rendered":"The Kremlin Is Nothing More than a Band of Predictable Criminals"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alexander Rojavin \u201920, Law & Public Policy Scholar<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

On August 20th<\/span><\/sup>, the same day that de facto leader of the Russian opposition Aleksei Navalny<\/span><\/a> was poisoned, Russian satirist (and arguably the last remaining clear-eyed social commentator left within Russia\u2019s borders) Viktor Shenderovich yet again correctly characterized the current inhabitants of the Kremlin as “<\/span>a criminal band<\/span><\/a>” (link in Russian). “They are felons,” he wrote. “And they\u2019re idiots, naturally, if they believe that it\u2019s possible to halt the flow of history through felony.” And because they are a specific, post-Soviet corruption-culture brand of criminals, they are predictable.<\/i> The Kremlin\u2019s playbook is limited, unimaginative, and\u2014because it is predictable\u2014negatable.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Every so often, something of particular note happens in Russia, which causes droves of columnists to suddenly transform into experts on Russia generally and Putin specifically. In 2014, following Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine<\/span><\/a>, myriad op-eds discussing Putin\u2019s seventeen-dimensional chess play began cropping up on front pages like bunnies in heat: “Putin is a brilliant long-term strategist!” “No, he is an accomplished short-term tactician!” Discussing Putin\u2019s supposed political and foreign policy acumen becomes quite fashionable every time the Kremlin causes another geopolitical flashpoint.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Putin has demonstrated over twenty years of plutocratic rule<\/span><\/a> that he is neither an accomplished tactician nor an exceptional strategist. Rather, his moves are governed by the instinctual ruthlessness and disregard for decency with which one becomes inculcated through <\/span>KGB training<\/span><\/a>. He is a base, unimaginative brute whose primary concern is his own pocketbook and his hold on power\u2014interests that are conceptually synonymous to plutocrats.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

As a reminder, here is an inexhaustive list of two decades\u2019 worth of the Kremlin\u2019s crimes that anyone familiar with post-Soviet Russian history should be able to recite by heart: the 2000 abandonment of the submarine Kursk<\/span><\/i><\/a> and the condemnation of all 118 people onboard to death; the <\/span>Second Chechen War<\/span><\/a>; the 2002 <\/span>Nord-Ost hostage massacre<\/span><\/a>; the 2004 <\/span>Beslan school massacre<\/span><\/a>; the murders of journalist and politician <\/span>Yuri Shchekochikhin<\/span><\/a> (poisoned, 2003), journalist and activist <\/span>Anna Politkovskaya<\/span><\/a> (shot, 2006), FSB defector <\/span>Alexander Litvinenko<\/span><\/a> (poisoned, 2006), and the last prominent leader of the Russian opposition <\/span>Boris Nemtsov<\/span><\/a> (shot, 2015), to name a few; the invasions of <\/span>Georgia<\/span><\/a> in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014; and the enablement and support of violent dictators in <\/span>Syria<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>Venezuela<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Throughout all this, Putin has clung to power not because of his political deftness, but because of a base, predatorial instinct. When he senses what he perceives as weakness\u2014such as obeisance to international treaties<\/span><\/a>\u2014he strikes. Seeing that scapegoating allows him to assassinate one opposition figure after another, he comfortably resorts to murder\u2014and often not as a last resort. Realizing that he would not be punished militarily for attacking Georgia, he invades Ukraine. Observing the feckless international response to his invasion and destabilization of Ukraine, he sends troops into Syria. Having ascertained repeatedly that Russia\u2019s citizenry is incapable of organizing en masse, he simply changes the country\u2019s malleable little constitution, thereby allowing himself to “formally” <\/span>remain in power<\/span><\/a> for the better part of another two decades. Having yet to face international or domestic punishment that he himself would perceive as truly crippling, he continues to give free rein to his essential aggressiveness.<\/span><\/p>\n

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But none of this qualifies as grand strategy or even coherent tactical maneuvering\u2014Putin has no conception of long- or short-term geopolitical objectives extending beyond the perpetuation of his personal wealth and power. Instead, the aggressive undertakings of the Putin regime are no more than the mere instinctual actions of a narrow-minded predator who has no place in a civilized international community, but who has yet to be firmly put in his place either by said community or by Russia\u2019s own people.<\/p>\n

\n

Yes, Putin is a predator with a keen predator\u2019s instinct. But because he is governed by instinct, predicting the types of actions he will take should be a straightforward exercise. His playbook is a limited one. Assassination. Invasion. Proxy and hybrid warfare<\/span><\/a>. Denial and redirection of accusations. Information warfare and <\/span>electoral interference<\/span><\/a>. <\/span>Cyberattacks<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>possibly with kinetic effects<\/span><\/a>, as in <\/span>Georgia in 2008<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>Ukraine in 2015<\/span><\/a>. Increasingly draconian domestic criminal law. None of this is new, and none of it should be surprising.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

To the Kremlin junta, few things are sacred. The welfare of its citizens\u2014let alone the global welfare\u2014isn\u2019t. International law isn\u2019t. Domestic Russian law, which is as mutable as cookie dough, sure isn\u2019t. And human life definitely isn\u2019t. Only money and power\u2014again, synonymous in this plutocratic context\u2014have value.<\/p>\n

\n

Shenderovich has a favorite aphorism made by Polish writer Jerzy Lec: “It is impolite to have doubts when you are quite certain of something.” Our certainty in the criminality of the regime that has taken Russia hostage should be unshakeable. And our treatment of it should be no less assured. Nothing that the Kremlin does should come as a surprise. The junta is criminal, and it is predictable. It would therefore be impolite\u2014no, it would be irresponsible<\/i>\u2014to have any doubts about its playbook.<\/p>\n

\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alexander Rojavin \u201920, Law & Public Policy Scholar On August 20th, the same day that de facto leader of the Russian opposition Aleksei Navalny was poisoned, Russian satirist (and arguably the last remaining clear-eyed social commentator left within Russia\u2019s borders) Viktor Shenderovich yet again correctly characterized the current inhabitants of the Kremlin as “a criminal band” (link in Russian). “They are felons,” he wrote. “And they\u2019re idiots, naturally, if they believe that it\u2019s possible to halt the flow of history … <\/p>\n

Read More<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"generate_page_header":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"coauthors":[55],"class_list":["post-2132","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","infinite-scroll-item","masonry-post","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-50"],"yoast_head":"\r\nThe Kremlin Is Nothing More than a Band of Predictable Criminals - Law & Public Policy Program<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www2.law.temple.edu\/lppp\/the-kremlin-is-nothing-more-than-a-band-of-predictable-criminals\/\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Kremlin Is Nothing More than a Band of Predictable Criminals - Law & Public Policy Program\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Alexander Rojavin \u201920, Law & Public Policy Scholar On August 20th, the same day that de facto leader of the Russian opposition Aleksei Navalny was poisoned, Russian satirist (and arguably the last remaining clear-eyed social commentator left within Russia\u2019s borders) Viktor Shenderovich yet again correctly characterized the current inhabitants of the Kremlin as “a criminal band” (link in Russian). “They are felons,” he wrote. “And they\u2019re idiots, naturally, if they believe that it\u2019s possible to halt the flow of history ... 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